Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 29.917786 33.389499 37.395171 42.433423 48.714034 56.449416 66.978503
2025-04-06 24.560809 28.751955 34.020145 41.369705 51.806868 66.945554 92.607695
2025-04-13 22.253373 27.108652 33.680029 43.775509 60.157441 88.890486 155.192710
2025-04-20 19.791276 24.728187 31.741492 43.263075 63.941884 106.617851 243.819364
2025-04-27 18.151164 23.169993 30.603927 43.579974 69.260778 132.563615 462.357293
2025-05-04 16.910241 21.978907 29.760688 44.100838 75.262086 168.457772 1286.306079
2025-05-11 15.828727 20.870070 28.836960 44.199152 80.474663 212.598018 19408.965804
2025-05-18 14.807391 19.730041 27.678489 43.546419 83.615072 258.619620 NaN
2025-05-25 14.069795 18.953235 27.018378 43.732484 89.266468 341.667660 NaN
2025-06-01 13.360653 18.151378 26.204745 43.403378 93.357144 444.741113 NaN
2025-06-08 12.713185 17.393109 25.376919 42.867030 96.630192 582.679749 NaN
2025-06-15 12.142158 16.715582 24.621210 42.346623 99.836376 792.977543 NaN
2025-06-22 11.641632 16.129127 23.992479 42.057933 104.186381 1223.685635 NaN
2025-06-29 11.095506 15.430657 23.088817 40.943454 104.633482 1693.801267 NaN
2025-07-06 10.962398 15.425331 23.511608 43.272556 123.047763 36570.777105 NaN
2025-07-13 10.556196 14.918600 22.898186 42.753568 127.060921 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.260378 14.586547 22.603196 43.056370 136.491129 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.005049 14.309554 22.392964 43.562958 148.398933 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.734215 13.988458 22.062229 43.657434 158.189146 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.424801 13.581432 21.518939 43.017051 161.965766 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.199788 13.316096 21.255121 43.198941 173.629196 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.952442 12.997596 20.853053 42.876286 180.802493 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 8.706313 12.670267 20.409380 42.350613 185.747363 NaN NaN